Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Pakistan's Nuclear War Plans

Sandwiched between Iran, China, India and Afghanistan, Pakistan lives in a complicated neighborhood with a variety of security issues. One of the nine known states known to have nuclear weapons, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and doctrine are continually evolving to match perceived threats.

A nuclear power for decades, Pakistan is now attempting to construct a nuclear triad of its own, making its nuclear arsenal resilient and capable of devastating retaliatory strikes.

Experts believe Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile is steadily growing. In 1998, the stockpile was estimated at five to twenty-five devices, depending on how much enriched uranium each bomb required. Today Pakistan is estimated to have an arsenal of 110 to 130 nuclear bombs. In 2015 the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center estimated Pakistan’s bomb-making capability at twenty devices annually, which on top of the existing stockpile meant Pakistan could quickly become the third-largest nuclear power in the world. Other observers, however, believe Pakistan can only develop another forty to fifty warheads in the near future.

Pakistani nuclear weapons are under control of the military’s Strategic Plans Division, and are primarily stored in Punjab Province, far from the northwest frontier and the Taliban. Ten thousand Pakistani troops and intelligence personnel from the SPD guard the weapons. Pakistan claims that the weapons are only armed by the appropriate code at the last moment, preventing a “rogue nuke” scenario.

Pakistani nuclear doctrine appears to be to deter what it considers an economically, politically and militarily stronger India. The nuclear standoff is exacerbated by the traditional animosity between the two countries, the several wars the two countries have fought, and events such as the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai, which were directed by Pakistan.

Unlike neighboring India and China, Pakistan does not have a “no first use” doctrine, and reserves the right to use nuclear weapons, particularly low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, to offset India’s advantage in conventional forces.

Pakistan currently has a nuclear “triad” of nuclear delivery systems based on land, in the air and at sea. Islamabad is believed to have modified American-built F-16A fighters and possibly French-made Mirage fighters to deliver nuclear bombs by 1995. Since the fighters would have to penetrate India’s air defense network to deliver their payloads against cities and other targets, Pakistani aircraft would likely be deliver tactical nuclear weapons against battlefield targets.

Land-based delivery systems are in the form of missiles, with many designs based on or influenced by Chinese and North Korean designs. The Hatf series of mobile missiles includes the solid-fueled Hatf-III (180 miles), solid-fueled Hatf-IV (466 miles) and liquid-fueled Hatf V, (766 miles). The CSIS Missile Threat Initiative believes that as of 2014, Hatf VI (1242 miles) is likely in service. Pakistan is also developing a Shaheen III intermediate-range missile capable of striking targets out to 1708 miles, in order to strike the Nicobar and Andaman Islands.

The sea component of Pakistan’s nuclear force consists of the Babur class of cruise missiles. The latest version, Babur-2, looks like most modern cruise missiles, with a bullet-like shape, a cluster of four tiny tail wings and two stubby main wings, all powered by a turbofan or turbojet engine. The cruise missile has a range of 434 miles. Instead of GPS guidance, which could be disabled regionally by the U.S. government, Babur-2 uses older Terrain Contour Matching (TERCOM) and Digital Scene Matching and Area Co-relation (DSMAC) navigation technology. Babur-2 is deployed on both land and at sea on ships, where they would be more difficult to neutralize. A submarine-launched version, Babur-3, was tested in January and would be the most survivable of all Pakistani nuclear delivery systems.

Pakistan is clearly developing a robust nuclear capability that can not only deter but fight a nuclear war. It is also dealing with internal security issues that could threaten the integrity of its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan and India are clearly in the midst of a nuclear arms race that could, in relative terms, lead to absurdly high nuclear stockpiles reminiscent of the Cold War. It is clear that an arms-control agreement for the subcontinent is desperately needed.


1 comments:

SAMIR SARDANA said...

The Destruction of India at the hands of the Pakistanis and Chinese is ordained

India is doomed and not just as per the Ghazwa e hind or the Sunni prophecies

The doom of the Hindoo and the takeover by the Muslims is forecasted in the Hindoo scriptures,as under :

Is Hindoosthan doomed ? dindooohindoo

As per the Hindoo Scriptures, the Ghazwa E Hind prophecy is to come true

The Mahabharata, Book 3: Vana Parva: Markandeya-Samasya Parva: Section CLXXXIX

And the whole world will be filled with “mleccha behaviour” (means Islamic behavior) and notions and “ceremonies, and sacrifices” (Like in the Cresent and Muslim India) will cease, and joy will be nowhere and “general rejoicing” (like Deeewali and Holeee) will disappear.

And without doubt all men will adopt the behaviour of the mlecchas, “become omnivorous”(eat Gau Mata) without distinction, and cruel in all their acts, when the end of the Yuga will come

And, O king, overwhelmed with covetousness, “men will kill Brahmanas” and appropriate and enjoy the possessions of their victims.

And the regenerate ones, “oppressed by Sudras”,and afflicted with fear, and crying Oh and Alas,will wander over the earth “without anybody to protect them” And the earth will “soon be full of mlecchas” (an Islamic World in Asia and Africa and EU), and the Brahmanas will “fly in all directions for fear of the burthen of taxes”

Sample the words of Al Beruni the great Arab Philosopher on these Hindoos.Beruni spent many years in Hindooosthan with Ghazni and studied the Vedas,Astrology and Sanskrit !

The words of Beruni on the Hindoo – which are PROPHETIC !

The Hindus believe that there is no country but theirs, no nation like theirs, no kings like theirs, no religion like theirs, no science like theirs.

They are haughty, foolishly vain, self-conceited, and stolid.

They are by nature niggardly in communicating that which they know, and they take the greatest possible care to withhold it from men of another caste among their own people,still much more, of course, from any foreigner…

If they travelled and mixed with other nations, they would soon change their mind, for their ancestors were not as narrow-minded as the present generation is.

This wrong estimate of themselves blinded the Hindus and they assumed a false sense of superiority which ultimately proved their ruin.

Alberuni also tells us that “they (the Hindus) are in a state of confusion, devoid in logical order and in the last instance always mixed up with silly notions of the crowd”.

I can only compare their mathematical and astronomical knowledge to a mixture of pearls and sour dates, or of pearls and dung, or of costly crystals and common pebbles. Both kinds of things are equal in their eyes since they cannot raise themselves to the methods of a strictly scientific deduction.